Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Kosovo's Pandora's Box

17th February 2008: Kosovo declares independence unilaterally.

The unique saga of the erstwhile Yugoslavia continues in the 21st century. Undeniably, this is just history exacting its toll on geography. The Yugoslav wars have finally ended, hopefully. Slovenia, Crotia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia - the constituents of the Federal People's Republic of Yugoslavia formed after WWII - had already attained their statehood. Now Kosovo, that was under UN & NATO administration since 1999, has declared its separation from Serbia unilaterally.

Whether the world's retaliation against the Serbia, in the wake of the decade long Yugoslav wars, and the trials of the Serbian leaders was an instance of the proverbial 'Victor's Justice' or not is not the discussion point here. The answer to that is obvious considering the scale and nature of violence against the Serbs which has very conveniently gone unnoticed and unremarked upon by the world that just needs someone to blame for all the bloodshed. However, why the declaration of independence? Why should the Republic of Kosovo be accepted by the international community as an independent nation while Serbia is dead against this despite all the incentives that were offered to make it accept the deal? Should past wrongdoings by Serbia, though atoned for and for which reparation has been attempted, hold as enough cause for declaration of statehood by Kosovo?

There were no obvious and overt current threats from Serbia towards Kosovo. The NATO intervention in 1999 and the succeeding world condemnation has caused a significant purgation of the Serbian administration, army and society. Milosevic was arrested and extradited to face trial in the International Court Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), Hague for genocide in Bosnia and war crimes in Croatia and in Kosovo and Metohija. Similar was the fate of his coterie and other alleged war criminals including Serbian Army generals, who were arrested and over to the ICTY. The Yugoslav parliament passed a law allowing extradition of all persons charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Tribunal. Moreover, Kosovo had significant autonomy on internal matters, a separate Parliament and a Prime Minister as well. So why independence?

Is this to satisfy the 'needs and aspirations' of the Albanians or is this because it was decided that an autonomous Kosovo can never re-integrate in Serbia or is this simply the world atoning for allowing the blood to flow from arms & ammunition supplied by it. And the world, and the Security Council, has split along obvious lines on this issue with the US and EU including the UK & France set to grant immediate recognition to the new nation while Russia and China opposing its independence declaration.

A more worrying issue is whether this model is replicable elsewhere? Close to ground zero, Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina want a separate homeland based on the Kosovo example. Russia has already spoken of using Kosovo precedent to help two provinces secede from neighboring Georgia. Chechen rebels want to use this as a case in point for their independence. It's a surprise that the Mirwaiz has not yet given a fiery speech promising its emulation in Kashmir.


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